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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd